A Standstill That Strengthens America
Recent data from Apollo's Torsten Slok reveals a striking trend: U.S. imports from China show no recovery, despite a new trade agreement. Shipping container traffic, a vital sign of trade health, remains stagnant. This development signals a powerful shift in America’s favor. By resisting China's economic influence, the United States is forging a future rooted in independence and resilience.
For decades, America relied heavily on Chinese imports, often at the expense of its own workforce and industries. Today’s trade freeze reflects a deliberate choice to prioritize national interests over short-term global trade benefits. Why continue heavy trade with a nation that consistently exploits our markets through unfair practices?
Under President Trump’s leadership, re-elected for a second term ending in 2029, tariffs have redefined global commerce. The 145% duties on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% in the May 2025 Geneva deal, underscore a firm stance: America will protect its economy from subsidized foreign competition. This policy is already prompting businesses to seek alternatives to Chinese supply chains.
Safeguarding Jobs and Innovation
The evidence is undeniable. U.S.-China trade has contracted by nearly 90% since tariffs intensified. This sharp decline supports American workers by revitalizing domestic manufacturing, long weakened by China’s state-driven competition. Legislation like the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act and Inflation Reduction Act has spurred investment in U.S. industries, generating jobs and securing critical technologies.
Advocates for deeper trade ties with Beijing claim such engagement stabilizes the global economy and keeps consumer prices low. Yet this perspective overlooks China’s pattern of intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers. Why reward a nation that undermines our innovators while flooding our markets with cheap products?
Business optimism is on the rise, with the PMI-derived index reporting 5.4% year-on-year growth in February 2025. Deloitte projects a 3.4% increase in business investment this year, driven by spending on machinery and intellectual property. These gains stem from America’s pivot away from China, as companies embrace friend-shoring and near-shoring in regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia.
Rewriting Global Trade Rules
The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation, and America stands to gain. The Trade Openness Index has fallen to 56%, with projections of a further drop to 53% by mid-2026. This move away from unchecked globalization enables the United States to build stronger ties with trusted allies. By friend-shoring to nations like Canada and Mexico, America enhances supply chain security while reducing reliance on China’s unpredictable policies.
China, meanwhile, is diversifying its trade, with a 5.6% year-on-year export increase to non-U.S. markets in April 2025. This shift highlights the effectiveness of America’s approach. By stepping back from being China’s primary trade partner, the United States is compelling Beijing to adapt to our terms.
Some argue that decoupling will drive up consumer costs, but this concern is exaggerated. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s Q1 2025 CFO Survey notes trade policy as a key issue, yet 88% of companies are actively reconfiguring supply chains. By adopting multi-sourcing and localization, businesses are building resilience, proving that America can thrive in a less China-dependent world.
A Vision for American Prosperity
The current U.S.-China trade stagnation reflects the strength of a principled economic strategy. By confronting China’s unfair trade practices, America is reclaiming control over its economic destiny. The Trump administration’s tariffs and semiconductor export controls lay the foundation for a future where American workers and innovators lead the way.
Supporters of renewed trade with China often emphasize global cooperation, but their approach weakens America’s position. Historical efforts, from Nixon’s 1972 outreach to China’s 2001 WTO entry, have only strengthened Beijing’s ambitions. The United States must focus on its own interests, not unrealistic hopes of mutual benefit.
Looking to 2026, America’s path is evident. Sustained tariffs, strategic alliances, and robust domestic investment will solidify our economic leadership. The lack of a trade rebound with China marks a victory for those committed to placing America’s strength and security first.